AI Is Outgrowing the Mega-Deal

For years, healthcare AI funding followed a familiar arc: bigger rounds, fewer companies, and a steady march toward “mega-deals.” In 2025, that narrative is starting to bend.

February 09, 2026

While capital flowing into $300M+ healthcare AI deals hit an all-time high, the number of deals surged even faster, suggesting the market isn’t just concentrating capital — it’s expanding the universe of companies able to absorb it.

In other words, AI in healthcare may be outgrowing the mega-deal phase.

The data tells a nuanced story. Yes, mega and “mega-plus” rounds are larger than ever, reflecting the extraordinary capital intensity of modern healthcare AI — from training and deploying generative models to integrating AI into drug discovery pipelines and ambient clinical documentation. These platforms aren’t just software companies; they’re infrastructure plays with long development cycles and regulatory complexity.

But what stands out is the reacceleration in deal volume. After a dip in 2023, the number of healthcare AI deals rebounded sharply in 2024 and again in 2025, even as average check sizes continued to climb. That combination — more deals and more dollars — signals something important: AI is moving from experimental to operational across healthcare.

This isn’t capital chasing hype alone. It’s capital chasing workflow ownership.

AI vendors that directly touch revenue, productivity, or clinical capacity — drug development timelines, physician documentation burden, care coordination, imaging throughput — are now viewed less as optional tools and more as mission-critical infrastructure. That reframing widens the buyer universe and pulls in later-stage capital sooner.

Another subtle shift: the bar for “mega” is rising. As $100M–$299M rounds become more common, they increasingly function as scaled growth rounds, not existential bets. The result is a funding ladder that supports multiple winners within the same category rather than forcing consolidation prematurely.

What to watch next:

  • Whether exit pathways (M&A or IPOs) can keep pace with rising private valuations

  • How reimbursement, regulation, and hospital budget pressure shape adoption curves

  • Which AI categories move from horizontal platforms to category-defining incumbents

Bottom line: Healthcare AI isn’t just getting bigger — it’s getting broader. Mega-deals still matter, but the real signal in 2025 is that AI is embedding itself across healthcare fast enough to support both scale and volume. That’s a sign of a market maturing, not overheating.